# Overview {% embed url="" %} The Prediction Market Copilot is NOYA’s **intelligence and analysis layer for prediction markets**. It is designed to go beyond surface-level probabilities by combining market data, wallet behavior, historical performance, and portfolio-level analytics. The Copilot treats prediction markets as probabilistic instruments that can be analyzed, compared, and sized using professional trading and research frameworks. The objective is not blind automation, but **edge discovery, context, and disciplined decision-making**. *** #### Market Intelligence For each prediction market, NOYA provides structured intelligence, including: * Market-implied probabilities and odds movements * Liquidity depth, volume, and participation metrics * Historical resolution data and base-rate comparisons * Event timelines, resolution criteria, and dependencies * News, announcements, and contextual signals relevant to the outcome Markets are categorized and tagged by topic, time horizon, and resolution risk to allow structured exploration. *** #### Expected Value and Scenario Analysis The Copilot evaluates markets using **expected value and scenario-based analysis**. This may include: * Edge estimation versus market-implied probabilities * Base, optimistic, and pessimistic outcome paths * Sensitivity to time-to-resolution and liquidity conditions * Identification of asymmetric payoff structures This framing helps users distinguish between fairly priced markets and those offering potential statistical or informational advantages. *** #### Top Holders and Smart Wallets NOYA surfaces **top holders and active participants** within each prediction market. Users can: * View top holders by position size or conviction * Identify historically profitable or consistent wallets * Filter activity by trader tier, category, or specialization * Distinguish between retail activity and concentrated positioning Wallets may be labeled based on historical performance, specialization, and behavioral patterns, helping users contextualize market positioning. *** #### Activity and Flow Analysis The Copilot tracks **live and recent market activity**, including: * Large position entries and exits * Rapid probability shifts * Clusters of coordinated activity * Changes in participation from high-performing wallets Activity analysis helps users understand *who* is acting, *when*, and *under what conditions*. *** #### Wallet and Portfolio Analysis NOYA provides wallet-level analytics for prediction market participants. For any wallet, users can access: * Portfolio composition and open positions * Realized and unrealized performance * Win rate, profit factor, and risk metrics * Market diversity and historical behavior This allows users to evaluate track records rather than relying on isolated trades. *** #### Wallet Discovery The Copilot includes tools to **discover and explore high-performing wallets**. Users can: * Browse traders by tier, category, or specialization * Filter by performance metrics and consistency * Identify wallets aligned with specific market themes This supports learning, benchmarking, and signal validation. *** #### Delivery Through the AI Agent All prediction market intelligence is accessible through the NOYA AI Agent. Users can: * Ask questions about specific markets or candidates * Compare multiple markets or outcomes * Investigate wallet behavior and conviction * Monitor evolving positions and probabilities The agent maintains contextual memory across markets, wallets, and time, allowing users to follow narratives and strategies rather than isolated events.