Overview
The Prediction Market Copilot is NOYA’s intelligence and analysis layer for prediction markets.
It is designed to go beyond surface-level probabilities by combining market data, wallet behavior, historical performance, and portfolio-level analytics. The Copilot treats prediction markets as probabilistic instruments that can be analyzed, compared, and sized using professional trading and research frameworks.
The objective is not blind automation, but edge discovery, context, and disciplined decision-making.
Market Intelligence
For each prediction market, NOYA provides structured intelligence, including:
Market-implied probabilities and odds movements
Liquidity depth, volume, and participation metrics
Historical resolution data and base-rate comparisons
Event timelines, resolution criteria, and dependencies
News, announcements, and contextual signals relevant to the outcome
Markets are categorized and tagged by topic, time horizon, and resolution risk to allow structured exploration.
Expected Value and Scenario Analysis
The Copilot evaluates markets using expected value and scenario-based analysis.
This may include:
Edge estimation versus market-implied probabilities
Base, optimistic, and pessimistic outcome paths
Sensitivity to time-to-resolution and liquidity conditions
Identification of asymmetric payoff structures
This framing helps users distinguish between fairly priced markets and those offering potential statistical or informational advantages.
Top Holders and Smart Wallets
NOYA surfaces top holders and active participants within each prediction market.
Users can:
View top holders by position size or conviction
Identify historically profitable or consistent wallets
Filter activity by trader tier, category, or specialization
Distinguish between retail activity and concentrated positioning
Wallets may be labeled based on historical performance, specialization, and behavioral patterns, helping users contextualize market positioning.
Activity and Flow Analysis
The Copilot tracks live and recent market activity, including:
Large position entries and exits
Rapid probability shifts
Clusters of coordinated activity
Changes in participation from high-performing wallets
Activity analysis helps users understand who is acting, when, and under what conditions.
Wallet and Portfolio Analysis
NOYA provides wallet-level analytics for prediction market participants.
For any wallet, users can access:
Portfolio composition and open positions
Realized and unrealized performance
Win rate, profit factor, and risk metrics
Market diversity and historical behavior
This allows users to evaluate track records rather than relying on isolated trades.
Wallet Discovery
The Copilot includes tools to discover and explore high-performing wallets.
Users can:
Browse traders by tier, category, or specialization
Filter by performance metrics and consistency
Identify wallets aligned with specific market themes
This supports learning, benchmarking, and signal validation.
Delivery Through the AI Agent
All prediction market intelligence is accessible through the NOYA AI Agent.
Users can:
Ask questions about specific markets or candidates
Compare multiple markets or outcomes
Investigate wallet behavior and conviction
Monitor evolving positions and probabilities
The agent maintains contextual memory across markets, wallets, and time, allowing users to follow narratives and strategies rather than isolated events.
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